California has had another calm wildfire season so far. Here’s why, according to experts.

California is enjoying a relatively calm wildfire season this year, but the Sacramento region is not fully out of the woods. And don’t attribute this year’s mildness to climate change just yet.

The number of acres burned so far this year is less than one third of the five-year average, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Experts attribute the drop to this year’s historic winter storms and a record snowpack that soaked the state. But those atmospheric river storms also created ample new vegetation growth that can act as fuel, state fire officials said. And with the help of gusty fall winds in the weeks ahead, wildfires could still ignite and grow through November or even into December.

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Although a field of science that connects climate change to specific weather events is advancing quickly, a recent controversy on the subject fueled a flurry of climate science skepticism.

Last month, scientist Patrick T. Brown at Johns Hopkins University said his recent paper — which found global warming had boosted the risk of fast-growing California wildfires by 25% — withheld the full truth. He said it did not account for vegetation growth and the state’s legacy of fire suppression because it would make the research more difficult to publish.

But the climate models seen by Erwan Monier, associate professor of climate change impacts at UC Davis Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, make him predict that this upcoming year’s combination of a strong El Nino and warmer ocean temperatures could lead to another wet year.

“This is most likely the configuration that will control California’s climate this winter, and will have implications for the next wildfire season. Because if we have another very wet winter, that means we’ll have even more moisture that could again lead to mild fires next year.”

Source: Sacramento Bee